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Ukraine Crisis

Discussion in 'Issues Around the World' started by ethics, Mar 3, 2014.

  1. Copzilla

    Copzilla dangerous animal Staff Member

    Which means it wasn't always Russian. And then shouldn't be now.
     
  2. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    And was given by Kruschev, under Soviet Union. Which means they had no idea nor qualms nor predictions that one day SU would break up. It's like Obama the King giving Alaska to California.
     
  3. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    Let's just hope that King Obama isn't asked by Lord Putin to give back Alaska. And, kiss his ring...

    And just noting, there is no guarantee that US won't break up some day. In fact I think it's likely in the long term.
     
  4. Arc

    Arc Full Member

    Now that it is no longer the crisis of the month in the USA news coverage of events in Ukraine have waned. Unfortunately, the situation there continues to deteriorate. Right now if Putin wants Eastern Ukraine and is willing to pay the price to take it, it is his and Russia's. The question is what does he want and what is he willing to pay?

    Will "Right Sector" or "Stronghold" become the local powerhouse? Also very key what is the Ukraine military capable of doing and just as important what is it willing to do in a worse case scenario.

    Meanwhile the question is just exactly who is the Ukraine government and what do they want and what are they willing to do? Do they have a strong consensus and control in whatever it is? Questionable at best.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2014
  5. Biker

    Biker Administrator Staff Member

    Merged threads. :)
     
  6. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    I think the public got bored and moved on, with plenty of other crises, and that eventually Putin is going to eat up all of Ukraine.

    He has Europe by the balls with the gas pipelines, and he'd have America by the balls if Obama had any. He knows that he can take his time and face little opposition in the long run.
     
  7. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    Putin doesn't want East Ukraine. He got Crimea which is what he wanted and now no longer afraid US will be "parking there".

    The rest is just pressuring Ukraine for money.
     
  8. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    Why not just own the whole thing if nobody stops him?
     
  9. jimeez

    jimeez Thread Killer

  10. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    It means that Putin knows that Obama has no balls, and that Obama was further castrated by the recent election.
     
  11. Allene

    Allene Registered User

    Bingo!
     
  12. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    Fake news by cnn.
     
  13. jimeez

    jimeez Thread Killer

    I suspected as much.

    But let's just say for shits and giggles that it was not fake news. What does Russia gain by flying bombers in the Gulf?
     
  14. Biker

    Biker Administrator Staff Member

    Real time intelligence. Numerous military installations ringing the gulf coast. No different than what they used to pull back in the 60s and 70s with the Bear bombers on both coasts and Alaska.
     
  15. Sierra Mike

    Sierra Mike The Dude Abides Staff Member

    Why do you think it's fake news?
     
  16. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    Shouldn't have used the word fake but bullshit instead.

    And this will answer @jimeez question as well.

    Putin, is not Russia, but for intents and purposes there's plenty of idiots like Andrei of this forum, who support him and what he is doing.

    So let's go back to the original Ukraine incursion.

    There are two Ukraines: West Ukraine (extremists from the far right like the Banderi) and East Ukraine (extremists of Putin puppets)

    They have never ever gotten along and there were cities like Kiev that united the normal, moderates from each side of Ukraine. Go a bit south and you had Dnepropetrovsk and to some extent Odessa dividing the lines where people just sat on the fence as there were always bigger issues to resolve... like where to live and where is the next meal coming from.

    Putin, being a former KGB, only knows one way to govern and rule. To postulate, to fear monger, to pull at the strings of the SOVIET soul -- remember, each and every human flaw is to think back on your life and have a mostly positive memory of "how it used to be". So Russians are like, "Oh wow! It was stable during SU days and while we can't get that back, let's at least bring back much of it... The core of that has always been Nationalism. You served in the US Army or US Navy? A police officer? Trust me, you have no idea the level of nationalism that Russians have. Their soul crunching ties to WWII is always there, always used on a macro level (as some people have used 9.11 here but that was ONE event, this was almost 7 years worth of suffering for the Soviets).

    Enter Putin 2013, he overestimates of how much the EAST Ukraine wants to be part of Russia and while his economy is ok, it's not expanding that much and while no one is talking about Recession, it's pretty clear Russia needs something to move their oil prices higher AND/OR get a massive support behind Putin so he can push whatever he feels like he can.

    What ends up happening is the total and complete opposite. Oil prices dive* and while he gained a massive amount of support over snagging of Crimea, the Western sanctions applied in the summer are beginning to hurt the tiny middle class that started to climb out of the desolation and the shadow of the SU. I won't even mention how his billionaire boys club are hurting because the bleeding is real and massive. Oil closed today at about 75 dollars. For Russia to BREAK EVEN, they need that barrel to be at about $100 dollars. This is where they don't make profit but they are not in the red. We are 1/4th down from that and there's no end in sight for the barrel to make a massive come back.

    So your best and only massive export of production and profit is in the shitter. You signed a horrendous, long term deal with China, you are constricted by US and Western sanctions, what do you do?

    You CAN do two things:

    1. You revert back, you pull your Russian troops out of Ukraine and hope the sanctions are lifted within about 3-6 months after.
    2. You go full crazy and double up on what you are doing and most of that is posturing and hope for American public to get scared and beg our leaders to stop the sanctions (this is where his naivette comes in about Americans).

    Hence, you get some d-bag in Russian government throw this out there and hope it gets blown out of proportion (hey, they know our retarded media pretty well) but there's little or no benefit for Putin to have his bombers here outside of fear mongering and hoping to shift the tide.
     
    jimeez and ShinyTop like this.
  17. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    Leon, your analysis ignores the flow of natural gas into Europe. With Putin and a wrench in his hand to shut it off, plunging Europe into the cold. The Putin-Ukraine thing puts Putin's hands on Europe's balls to squeeze any time he wants.

    I want to make it clear that I agree with all your conclusions. (Good post BTW.)
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2014
  18. Sierra Mike

    Sierra Mike The Dude Abides Staff Member

    So you mean to say that the Russians DIDN'T indicate they're willing to start recce flights into the Gulf? (It might be kind of tough for them to do it, unless they plan to land in Cuba to refuel.)
     
  19. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    Putin is desperate for any revenue, he would't be dumb enough to turn off the only spigot he's got for any form of revenue.
     
  20. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    I doubt they will do that. But CNN and every other media needs click bait.
     

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