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The market

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Susan Addams, Feb 6, 2018.

  1. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Amazonian woman in a petite package!

    What subject could be more relevant to our economy than the stock market?

    It's just crazy that the talking heads say "a thousand points down." The last time they said that the market was a couple thousand points. It was a crash!

    Today the market is a thousand of points down. (Or whatever, I'm not going to update this topic in real time.) A thousand points is nothing. They should be discussing percents if they want to compare today vs. historic markets. The MSM are stirring the stick, feeding the monster. It's a big story if you count in points. Not so big if you count in percents. The MSM counts in viewers, their market is delivering advertisements.

    Myself, I'm still up a couple hundred points on Amazon and that big beautiful lady has dropped only two days IIRC since "the crash." Today I am arraying my forces to follow that fundamental key to success in the stock market: "Buy low, sell high." To me a down market is not a sea of red ink, it is an opportunity to buy at the ground floor. The only difficult part of this equation is to tell when that elevator opens its doors on the lowest floor it will reach.

    As far as Amazon I'll probably still own my AMZN 10 years from now. That lady is my financial BFF. It is inconsistent with my world view that AMZN could ever be a bad deal. There are only two prices for AMZN: good and better. I am seeking that signal that tells me "better."

    Berkshire Hathaway still looks like a good deal although I think I may be down a bit (I haven't looked). Whatever Warren Buffett is doing, he knows far better than I what to do. Anyway compared to Amazon BRK.B is a small component of my strategy. By the way look at the A shares and you will understand why I bought B shares. I think the equation is 1,000 B (non-voting) shares = 1 A (voting) share. Like I want to vote when Mr. Buffett is the captain of the ship? I think not.

    Following the above we come to PayPal. There is a coming war between crypto-currencies. Think block chains. Think of other contenders. My confidante told me to look into X but unfortunately I cannot remember what X was. I'll have to phone him today and ask him to remind me what X he referred to. Both Apple and Amazon appear to be getting into the crypto-currency game. I cannot make up my mind what role PayPal will play. PayPal is the biggest question in my portfolio.

    Finally we come to Apple. Apple was I'm pretty sure my poorest stock market pick, but there is a simple fix for that. Sell it. If it's red then sell it at a loss. Turn it into cash that can be better applied to buying a winner: more AMZN. I should have thought it out further. Apple was doing well with the introduction of the iPhone 8 and 8 plus. Then they made two major blunders. The first was the introduction of the iPhone X on the heels of the 8. Talk about a recipe for fratricide. Apple was so stupid as to compete with itself. They deployed their X troops in the wrong place, much the same as Hitler opened a war on his eastern front with Russia. That is what lost Hitler the war, and the same mistake may lead to Apple's comeuppance.

    Apple will introduce their new product, the Apple HomePod, this Friday February 9th. They should have been flogging their troops to introduce this product on November 9th, not February 9th. They poured their engineering energy into the X, a product that kills the iPhone 8 and 8+, when they should have poured their engineering energy into the HomePod, a product that kills the Amazon Alexa. Stupid, stupid, stupid! You have to understand that Amazon's huge (historic) profits, the same ones that buoy AMZN far above the bear market (AMZN still down but not compared to the rest of the market). What will happen to Apple's stock on Monday the 12th? Yes, that is the question. Will it be a case of road kill bounce? One last flop as the tires run over a dead animal, a flop that could be taken as a sign of life? We all know that road kill is always dead although it can present the appearance of life given half of 18 wheels running over the corpse. Strangely, an up signal on Monday may be the sign to move my Apple $$$ into Amazon $$$.

    Apple, too little too late. Yeah, sure, HomePod will be a success. Apple enthusiasts like me would buy them... except I've already totally embraced Alexa. I haven't remarked on the subject but I have been transforming my home to embrace voice control. I can even turn on/off my gas fireplace by mere voice orders. I ordered my coffee before I got out of bed. The downstairs lights were on when I came downstairs.

    If Apple had introduced HomePod in November they would be killing Amazon Alexa instead of killing their iPhone 8 and 8+. Apple was 90 days late and who knows how many dollars short. I have an old iPhone which works fine. You know what engineers say: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." I'm not in any market for a new cell, but I had occasion to linger at both Apple and Amazon on Sunday, ample time to compare the 8, 8+ and X. Ha! You gotta be kidding me. What idiot would buy an 8 when for another $300 you can have a screen size almost as big as the 8+ in a package almost as small as the 8? By the way the Apple engineers were clever in providing the earphone slot IN the screen (almost) by having a notch for the earphone then using the screen area on either side for the time and signal strength indicators, freeing the rest of the screen for actual content.

    But Apple killed their 8 sales by introducing the X on the heels of the 8. They had their engineers working on the X when their engineers should have been working on introducing the HomePod to debut in time for holiday sales. Apple behaved almost imperially by introducing the X (was that for some Apple anniversary?) when they should have introduced the HomePod, and launched their war on Alexa. I'll call that hubris.

    I'm looking to sell my AAPL on the road kill bounce and buy a winner: more AMZN.

    Suzy makes a prediction: mark AMZN today then add two years to today's date. I predict that on Feb. 6th 2020 AMZN will be trading at double today's price.


    By the way, not that it belongs in this topic, but I can't decide where else to post it, as probably an orphan post: read but no replies. I awoke Sunday and pissed off because of my experiences with my recently purchased iPad mini 4 WiFi model. Maybe it's Apple slowing down older iPhones, maybe the limitation was always there, but for whatever reason the "use your WiFi pod via your cell's hotspot" thing doesn't work. Well it works but it works poorly, particularly streaming live video from your home when you are out an about. (Think Amazon Cloud Cam, think Ring door bell cam.) If only more life's problems were this simple to solve! You silly, just throw money at your problems that are amenable to such treatment. I awoke early and by the time the sun came up my online order was ready for Apple employees to populate the store later in the morning. At some point I noticed I had a text that my order was ready to pick up at my local store.

    I drove over and picked it up. I don't understand why I had to wait 30 minutes for a transaction that would have taken 5 minutes in Best Buy or Home Depot. That gave me ample time to compare and contrast the 8, 8+ and X, and fuel for my comments above. By 1 p.m. my new iPad mini 4 worked just fine with no WiFi hot spot needed. I simply moved my old iPad retinal's cell access to my new mini. No cost difference to my 3 GB shared data plan. I had originally intended to eBay the old mini which cost $350 and what would I get for it? I have this cute easel and decided to set up the old mini next to my Alexa Show, and leave the mini on the AMZN stock channel. :)

    Back to stocks, my confidante predicts more blood on the tracks for about a week, and then a slow recovery. He predicts trouble ahead around the mid-terms, stating that if the Democrats wrest seats back from the Republicans there could be dire consequences for the stock market. If you like to worry about things that will give you something to worry about.

    My prediction about AMZN's double in 2 years future is null and void if the Dems get a house back. If they get it my stock won't double.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  2. Biker

    Biker Administrator Staff Member

    While Amazon may seem a good bet for the short term, counting on it to be a viable deal 10 years from now is poor planning and could bite you in the hind end in the long run.

    Crypto currencies are nothing more than a huge ponzi scheme. Early adopters make out like a bandit, with those coming in later in the game not fairing as well. Countries are beginning to look at banning them completely, and governments everywhere are looking at how to get their cut in the way of taxes. The only people who are fanatic about currencies like Bitcoin are those who border on anarchists and think the rules don't apply to them.

    As far as PayPal is concerned, it would be a prudent option as part of a stock portfolio. But remember, it has absolutely nothing to do with crypto currencies.

    For long term investing, I was once told to look at the long standing companies like Coca Cola. While short term views don't look impressive, over the long haul, they're your safest and consistent performers.
     
  3. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Amazonian woman in a petite package!

    Having a strategy for AMZN in 10 years does not equate to owning AMZN in 10 years.

    I was bulking crypto-currencies with the coming e-pay wars as both Amazon and Apple get into the fray. That equates to competition with PayPal. However PayPal is long established and has a well known, easy to use payment system to settle online debts. Not only that but more and more stores are accepting PayPal as a payment option. That is why I was equivocal about PayPal.

    And Apple? Their engineering is great. It's their marketing that sucks. The iPhone X vs. HomePod discussion illustrates their marketing problem perfectly. They should have deployed their X crew on getting the HomePod on the market in time for Xmas sales. Amazon has made huge market penetration with their Echo/Alexa product line.

    Voice operated homes are the next big thing, except that the time is now. In fact the time was November, a point that Apple missed.
     
  4. Biker

    Biker Administrator Staff Member

    Bitcoin Tumbles Almost 20% as Crypto Backlash Accelerates

    What the stalwarts don't realize is Bitcoin and other currencies will most likely fall under heavy regulation this year. With claims of criminal activity, money laundering, etc., the free wheeling days are rapidly coming to an end, which is why many are selling off and going to more traditional investment options.

    And again. PayPal and crypto currencies are two different animals. As far as being a competitor to PayPal? Nope. Far more use PayPal than those who mine or trade in crypto currencies. Look at the number of companies who accept PayPal over those who accept Bitcoin. PayPal has absolutely nothing to worry about.
     
  5. Biker

    Biker Administrator Staff Member

    Some have been touting voice operated homes for decades. And as much as Google, Amazon and Apple would love to have you use their products to make this so, it's not something that's going to be widely used. And many like myself, will never use something like this, especially with the insecurities involved with IoT. It's not ready for prime time, and has a long way to go before it's even a viable and secure option for general use.
     
  6. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Amazonian woman in a petite package!

    I know a guy who still has a clam phone. :) Worse, he turns it off unless he needs to make a call. He's an old guy, 60-something. He wouldn't know an app if it bit him.

    For what it's worth I dumped my PayPal at a break even price. Maybe made enough to pay the transaction costs and lunch at Denny's. :)

    I can get better profit at my pawn shop. I've bought into the shop at 8% interest. I decided over the weekend to increase my investment. I'll pour the PayPal proceeds into that rather than own PayPal, if I can't buy Amazon with the proceeds.

    I have a SELL LIMIT GTC order on AAPL at my purchase price. We'll see if they get a roadkill bounce from the HomePod on Monday. I'm bored with Apple and their stupid marketing decisions. Not so bored that I'm willing to take a bath.

    Meanwhile AMZN is in the green! Up about 15. I'm also transferring some $$$ from my bank to my trading account when they open. Oops, now AMZN up 26. No, up 27... LOL. ;)

    ETA:

    Amazon is within 50 of their all time high. They are being affected by the general market drop but faring better than maybe 95% of the stocks. Just guessing on that percentage.
     
  7. ShinyTop

    ShinyTop I know what is right or wrong!

  8. MemphisMark

    MemphisMark Old school Conservative

    Suzy,

    I'm no stock market analyst and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. From what I have seen, single stocks are very risky. Ask all those Enron stock holders how well their investments are going...

    You might want to look into diversification of your portfolio. But that's between you and your broker.
     
  9. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Amazonian woman in a petite package!

    Thank you Mr. Top! :) I love my Amazon as much as I love my girls so you can be sure they're keepers. (Um, both. I mean, all all of them!) ;) Oh, AMZN closed up $52.84 today. I'm up almost $250/share on my AMZN holdings. :) That's up 21 percent in 3 months.

    Today was an interesting day on The Street. I guess I run on intuition because I get these feelings about things and I just do them. At one point I had placed a sell order for my 35 shares of Apple. Then I started thinking of their HousePod introduction coming on Friday... I also noticed that AAPL's trend line for the day was becoming more aggressive. I changed the sell 35 to buy 65 and executed 3 minutes before market close. So now I'm down a bit under $500 on 100 shares of AAPL which I think will easily recoup on their introduction of their HousePod. They closed up $6.54 today and if they repeat performance tomorrow I'll be in the black ink within 24 hours. Anybody with a brain (who is trading AAPL) knows about the HousePod intro. If I want I can take a few thou on the roadkill flip but I think I'll keep AAPL for a while. Maybe they learned a lesson from their intro of the iPhone X.

    I'm keeping my Berkshire B. Warren Buffett is nobody's fool.

    Mark, you are so cute when you get protective! :) When I opened my trading account they asked me if I wanted a broker or a self directed account. I looked at them like I was looking at a purple cow, and told them "no thanks, I'd rather pick losers myself than have your guy pick my losers." No, not really! I told them I was knowledgeable in trading and I just wanted a point and shoot interface to the trading floor. $14.95/trade and take a pass on the advice.

    I am diversified. I've discussed only the stock market. My other bets are placed including an annuity on the S&P 500, they take 1.5%, and guarantee me in return that my worst year will be zero profit, cannot lose. Voya 7 year plan. I'm half into a 6-month CD at 1% (well it was better than my money market interest). I even have an interest in a pawn shop, 8 percent simple interest, paid monthly on the 1st via check. I'm probably the most diversified person on this forum. And of course I have a cash position in my checking account.

    I have $1 in my money market account. They are the worst possible investment! A money market account is a parking lot for money where they charge you to park. What? Check it out. Compare your money market interest rate to the cost of inflation and tell me you are not paying the bank to park money in your money market account.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
  10. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Amazonian woman in a petite package!

    Just a retrospective as I tire and just before decide to go horizontal. Reading my OP I could have not predicted today.

    I bashed PayPal but they have performed well enough to keep them. Instead I sold them. Sold them at a wash even, even in this down market. If I had infinite backing I would have kept them, perhaps as a toy or trinket. That they kept their value during this adjustment shows they have staying power. Near as I can figure and including the transaction fees they were a wash for me.

    I had intended to dump Apple for their stupid marketing department, yet tonight I own 100 shares. I guess it's in for a penny, in for a pound. You can't lose with Apple but can you win anything? I'm doubtful at this stage but Apple is IMO not a gamble. I'm pretty sure I can dump them anytime I want at worst a wash.

    Amazon? They are my rock! No way would I ever sell my Amazon. They are the future, they are my future. I might pick off a few odd shares tomorrow since I have only pocket change in my trading account.

    Berkshire Hathaway? Maybe it will be instructive to study the man who owns it. Owning BRK.B may focus me on important lessons to learn.

    Once again my stock position has reached stasis. I might pick off the odd share of Amazon if the price dips and I have some pocket change. Watch AMZN dip and watch me buy. I think I have enough for 2 shares, maybe move some pocket change into my trading account tomorrow to afford 3 shares if the price is right. It will raise my average weighted purchase price a bit but a few years from now double is still double.

    Oh, this topic would not be complete without a prediction. I'm going with the same as my confidante predicted. I think we are in a Sargasso, that the market will be swept around a bit over the next week but going nowhere. Just like my friend said. We had a small recovery today according to major market indicators. The crash was a no show. A few losers still plummet. The strong stocks are only modestly impacted (e.g. Amazon).

    They say there is a secret to success in the stock market: "Buy low, sell high." Big secret! As I think over the events of today that's why I decided to buy Apple. They lost significant value, but I'm sure they will return. I like my road kill bounce theory vis a vis the introduction of their HomePod. I wanted to place a bet on the nose of that horse! It's no fun watching a winner if you have nothing at stake.

    I might even buy a HomePod and play with it for a while. It will be instructive to compare the products of my two competing A stocks AMZN and AAPL. It's too bad HomePod doesn't stand a chance since I am already totally bought into Alexa products including Sonos. It's like I said in my OP: Apple made a big mistake pouring their engineering into the iPhone X instead of focusing on the HomePod product. Even Amazon was surprised when Alexa took off and grounded Amazon's historic profits announced just a few days ago after the market closed. I'll even call the announcement stunning.

    Apple screwed up badly, killing their iPhone 8 and 8+ sales with the iPhone X.* Will the introduction of the HomePod make up for that? Hard to tell but it will be fun to watch as I have a bet going, I'm in the mix. ... Do other investors dissect this like I do?

    As for Amazon, they were a part of this "correction" only because they live in the same swamp. I already have most of my unrealized gains back and I think by Friday or Monday AMZN will once again be in record breaking highs.

    I should prowl the house and see if I hae any piggy banks to raid.


    * Re: the iPhone X, I have a theory. They have been working on that giant display for a long time, OLED? I forgot the technology. They've been going balls to the wall on it. They introduced the 8 and 8+ because just like MSFT they always want to periodically introduce a new product only to generate new sales. Why people go for this I have no idea but they do. Bigger = better? Was the 8 any bigger than the 7? My 5 still works fine. — I think the introduction of the X was pure hubris. They'd been working on the revolutionary display for maybe years. It is impressive too! Compare the 8, 8+ and X side by side. The X is barely larger than the 8 yet has a display almost as large as the 8+. It's no wonder the X is killing 8 and 8+ sales. The 8s are for bottom feeders now. What is a mere $300 more for the X if you are going to keep the phone for a few years?

    Would holding back the X have even worked? We all know Apple is riddled with information leaks more than a sieve. Just knowing it was on the horizon would have leaked and maybe knowing it was coming could have killed 8 sales almost as much as introducing and selling the X.

    I think the HomePod was a good secret although those in the know would have seen it coming. I should have known that Apple could not leave Alexa with a wide, unexplored and untamed market. My first clue was when I visited the Apple site to buy a new iPad. Color me clueless.

    Well it's 1-ish and off to bed, to pick Fergie or Pink or ZZ Ward to drift me off as I study the HomePod again on my mini. For the first time in months I can't think of anything I want to order from Amazon. Imagine that! I ran out of coveting before I ran out of cash, although I don't have much of that left.

    What kind of market is this anyway? You spend all that money and when you get home all you have to show for it is paper.

    I think the correction is all but over. My confidante thinks the recovery will take months but I think it will take weeks. The lions' bellies are already full of antelope.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018

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