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Suzy predicts an up market... Finally!!! Yay!!!

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Susan Addams, Feb 12, 2018.

  1. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Unregistered User

    After arguably two weeks of a scary ride it appears that the market will open up today, according to pre-market trading in futures:

    S&P +28.25 +1.08%
    NASDAQ +66.75 +1.04%
    DOW +267.00 +1.10%

    Conclusion: market on average up 1 percent.

    My own portfolio:

    AMZN closed 1,339.60 pre 1360-1361 up about 20
    BRK.B closed 196.02 pre 198-199 up 2-3
    AAPL closed 156.41 pre 158.50 up about 2
    PYPL closed 74.75 pre around 75.5 up about .75

    Raw pre-market figures from NASDAQ.com, volume, high, low

    AMZN 108,941 $ 1,372 (05:59:02 AM) $ 1,350.20 - UP 1%
    BRK.B 19,579 $ 199.20(08:36:36 AM) $ 197.65 (04:00:00 AM) - UNCH
    AAPL 348,365 $ 159.40 (04:08:33 AM) $ 157.25(04:00:03 AM) - UP 0.95%
    PYPL 21,833 $ 75.86 (05:31:05 AM) $ 75.17 (04:00:00 AM) - UP 0.8%

    I've had an unreasonable faith all weekend that we are nearing the end of the volatility. The only reasonable explanation I've been able to find is uneasiness re: rumors about Fed prime increasing.

    So here's my prediction: the market will start up in about 3 minutes. :)

    Where it ends, I have no idea. A good, strong up market today could encourage increased confidence in investors and may end the correction. I hope. :)

    That's your pre-market briefing from an amateur trader. :)
  2. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Unregistered User

    And now the market is open!

    AMZN 1360 up 1.53%
    BRK.B 75.67 up 1.58%
    AAPL 158.48 up 1.22%
    PYPL 76.11 up 1.82%
  3. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    If you are not a day trader this is meaningless for 99% of the population.
  4. Arc

    Arc Full Member

    I think you are giving too much credit to the one percent! ;)
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2018
    ethics likes this.
  5. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Unregistered User

    I'm not a day trader but that doesn't mean I'm not nervous when the market is down. If we had another day like Friday I would be in the red ink, but over the weekend the indications were looking positive and when I analyzed the situation for my OP I was practically certain today would be up at least at opening. Actually it doesn't take a genius to look at the pre-opening data and figure it out.

    There's also this: one swallow does not a Spring make. Just because the day started up doesn't mean it will close up. I've seen plenty of days when my portfolio was green in the morning and red in the afternoon. However grant me this, that my picks have outperformed the market each and every slump, that when mine were down everything else was down far worse. When the days have been mixed mine have been mixed mostly up.

    And as I said, I plan on keeping my exact holdings for 7-12 years, at least, I contemplate no further moves on my part unless the market turns down again and at some point in the future I see a buying opportunity for more Amazon. Amazon is the flagship of my portfolio and the strength of my position, and it's the only thing I would consider changing, and in that only to buy more shares.

    And I'm not buying the talk of breaking them up. That's Democrat thinking. "They're making too much money, let's mess them up good and make Trump look bad."

    The main point to my topic is that today may be the first indication that the correction may be over. We may be poised to resume that relentless climb to the next all time high. For the record, I predict that this new climb will be on a more shallow slope and will take much longer to get the market back into good shape. Too many people were scared by the idea too much too fast. Everybody is nervous about that one. They are going to want to see slower gains if this is indeed the end of the correction and the beginning of the recovery.
  6. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    You shouldn't be if the core fundamentals are in place. Stocks are a teaspoon to the bathtub what the bonds are to the economy.

    And I hate to say it but the correction is no where near where it should be. :(
  7. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Unregistered User

    I'm nervous but I believe the core fundamentals ARE in place. I see that everything is right about the economy. The problem is the vast numbers of people who trade on emotion plus the automated trades in place. Both make the market unstable. All I want is stability. With stability the stock market follows the economy, and there is no economic reason for any crash or correction.

    I just hope everybody will restrain themselves if indeed the correction is over, and let's just bank the embers rather than having a bonfire. Suzy wants slow growth of the market at a stable rate.

    BTW my prediction for tomorrow is that the sun will come up in the east and I don't know what the market will be. The only stock I've even looked at is AMZN and it was stable in after market trading.
  8. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    Then why are you concerned about short term? Your stocks picks should be all long term.
  9. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Unregistered User

    It's just human nature to fret about things. I know I'm right but I fret anyway. I'm happier when I'm in the "unrealized gains" area. Not so happy in the "unrealized losses" area although I've never been there.

    Just today I told my trading company to send all the cash back to my regular bank. I told them I I'm going to stand what I've got perhaps for years. It's funny, I discovered there's a $50 inactivity fee any year you do no trades. I have until December 2019 to worry about that.
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018
    ethics likes this.
  10. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Unregistered User

    What really annoys me is sheeple who get scared when the market goes down. That's what happened these last few weeks. I've scoured the reasons and I can find no fundamental flaws in the economy that haven't been there for years. Somebody heard a rumor or had a theory, they sold. Somehow a stampede of lack of confidence in the market multiplied and then everybody was selling at a loss. If nobody had flinched the market would have stayed fine. It was the first idiot and the sheeple who followed who are to blame for "the correction."

    Oh that reminds me. What correction? That's right, what correction? Either I'm blind or Amazon hit a new all time high today. I call that a correction of the misconception that the market needed a correction. Any idiot who sold Amazon in the last two weeks just lost a lot of money in unrealized gains. I kept my stock. I bought in about 1200. AMZN closed at 1451. That's 250/share profit if I sold today. But that's not me. I'm planning on the stock doubling in the next two years. That's why I didn't sell my AMZN.

    There is a number, I don't know what it is, it's the dollar value where there would be so many investors attracted to the stock that any available shares at that price would be snapped up right away. That shows you right there that I might lose money but I won't lose it all!

    So there you go. I can't possibly lose all of my investment in AMZN. I could lose part of it. The up likelihood trumps the down risk. That's why I'm keeping AMZN.
  11. Susan Addams

    Susan Addams Unregistered User

    Just to recap this week's market, Monday through Thursday were strong particularly in my portfolio but Friday appeared week, indecisive. I was up for the week but felt a letdown on Friday, wondering what Monday's opening will be like.'

    I would be up a tidy sum if I cashed out but I want massive not tidy! I remain convinced that my Amazon stock will be worth 2X what it is today in two years.

    I read several analyses by technical analysts and came away feeling good that I don't believe all that stuff. Why? Because if they were any good at all the power of their analyses would allow them to earn so much profits that they would retire and quit making their analyses. That they are not rich proves that their data is not meaningful.

    My own analysis is that the week was strong for the most part but ended on a weak note (my portfolio was down a bit), and I have no idea what will happen on Monday.

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