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Iran Boiling Over

Discussion in 'Issues Around the World' started by ethics, Nov 13, 2002.

  1. ethics

    ethics Pomp-Dumpster Staff Member

    I know I know, another one of my calling that THE revolution is about to happen, right? Perhaps not this time.

    The divisions between reformists and advocates of continued clerical rule in Iran are wider than ever and could be on the verge of boiling over.

    <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/76777.html"> After four days of street demonstrations in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Urumiyeh, and Hamedan</a> protesting against the death sentence meted out to reformist scholar <a href="http://www.netiran.com/Htdocs/Clippings/DPolitics/020512XXDP01.html">Hashem Aghajari</a>, the momentum of protests appeared to be growing rather than ebbing.

    In the meantime, the political crisis which has arisen out of the efforts of the reformist-dominated Parliament to curb the powers of the judiciary and the veto-wielding Guardian Council has reached such a pass that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened to use <a href="http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873219784&p=1012571727102">'the force of the people'</a> (a euphemism for the Revolutionary Guards and the Islamist Basij militia) against the President's Administration and against the reformist majority in Parliament.

    With popular President Khatami threatening to resign if the curbs on the judiciary and Guardian Council do not become law, and with both reformers and conservatives threatening to resort to force, we, folks, are on a verge of something big happening in Iran.

    My question is this, however, with best interests of the US being in Iran (in light of having more allies in the Middle East) is there anything that the U.S. can sensibly do to ensure that the power struggle in Iran ends with Khatami and Parliamentary reformers in charge rather than the America-hating clerics?
  2. EMIG

    EMIG Yup

    No. This has been tried countless times, and the side we favor invariably loses. Perhaps precisely because of our support.

    We could try to support the religious conservaties to get the outcome we really want, but that ploy is probably too crude to succeed.
  3. Omar

    Omar Registered User

    I am certainly rooting for the students. Let there be very little, if at all, bloodshed.
  4. Coot

    Coot Passed Away January 7, 2010

    One of our CAD draftsmen is from Iran and he was beside himself all day. He's been hoping that the clerics would back down....not much of a chance there I think.

    What I think I see happening there, at least in terms of the last 30 years goes something like this...When the Shah was in power, only the wealthier of families had their children educated. The educated then owned businesses, served in government and the military...most were educated abroad. After the overthrow, much of the military stayed in place while the educated either went underground or abroad.

    Skip ahead 20 years...the clerics in their wisdom saw the need to educate more and more if for no other reason than to read the Prophet's words. With education, both in and out of the country; with family outside the country, and despite its repression, critical thinking did develop to some degree in Tehran and the underground became above ground once more.

    Much of the military in Iran are secular and pay casual obeisance to the religious rabble. I think it won't take much for the military to see which way the wind blows and choose the more moderate path, with the moderates in Iran very much wanting a western alliance.

    Prediction? This time next year, Iran will have a secular parliamentary government and be very much in favor of aligning with the west. The coup if you will would most likely take place during the military action in Iraq...should the need arise ;)

    This is of course simplistic and the brevity does not do justice to the complexities, but I'm pretty sure I'm not off the mark, at least not by much.
  5. ShinyTop

    ShinyTop I know what is right or wrong!

    Coot, sounds like a good summation. I will be the first to admit that I am not well versed on Iran so my agreement does not mean much.
  6. Omar

    Omar Registered User

    You underestimate yourself.

    Aside from a few things unmentioned like the openness of the internet, news services, and even CNN, Persians are ready, have been ready for years, to join the more advanced world in terms of technology, economy, and education.

    In my long stays in Iran, mainly Tehran, I saw much future in the youth. I very much hope that the time is near.

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