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How many times can Obama flip-flop?

Discussion in 'Issues Around the World' started by Greg, Nov 15, 2013.

  1. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    He started out with "If you like your insurance you can keep it" and then flip-flopped to "if you like your insurance you can keep it, unless it's sub-standard in which case you can get better insurance on the exchange." He conveniently never mentions that the better insurance costs more and has a higher deductable, so high that many if not most people will be just throwing money in a hole if they join the exchange. Now he has said that suspension of minimum plan requirements for 2014.

    I've lost count now. In some respects he has turned on his Democrat party cohorts. The Clintons and many others (including Clinton advisor James Carville) have evidently turned on him. All the Democrat incumbents are making plans to throw Obama under the bus if they think Obamacare threatens their incumbency. Every new twist to Obamacare makes it more likely to get into the "death spiral" where fewer and fewer healthy people enter the Obamacare pool and more and more sick people join up, which will result in a surely more risky pool, which itself will result in higher rates... which will result in fewer people signing up.

    He's announced that the Executive will not enforce minimum policy standards in 2014 and that if insurance companies want to offer under-qualified plans or extend or reinstate sub-standard pans they can, and the government won't enforce Obamacare rules in 2014. It is of course transparently an attempt to save the 2014 election for Democrats by moving the bad news to tax day, April 2015, when he hopes Democrats will maintain the Senate and Presidency and gain the House. And also, transparently laying the groundwork to blame the insurance companies for defaulting on the "If you like your insurance you can keep it" promise. In the near future you can expect him to say that it's fine with Obamacare if you keep your old insurance plan, you can keep your old doctors if you want, and if anybody is to blame for your not getting that it's your insurance company to blame.

    While it may be possible that some policies may not get dropped in the future, there's already about 5 million people--1 million in California alone--whose policies have already been canceled. What are the insurance companies going to do, send them all a letter "never mind, we were just kidding..." ??? And what about the calculations that the insurance companies did to decide policy costs for 2014 and the approval they got from state insurance regulatory agencies? Thinking that the canceled plans can be rescinded is sheer folly! That's like trying to get the bombs back after the bomber has already dropped them. It is past the point that the insurance companies can alter their course.

    And the irony of it all: the Republicans have already gotten more than they wanted and asked for during the government shut down debacle. So far the only thing that hasn't been uttered yet is that there will be no fines for those who don't sign up, and IMO that is a sure bet that one day soon it will be announced, no fines in 2014 for individuals who have not signed up. IMO the "no fines for individuals" will be the final straw that breaks the camel's back.

    It is going to happen! Obama is going down! Obamacare is a flop and there is no way to fix it. Congress is going to have to throw out the whole thing, and start over if they want health insurance reform. And while doing it they are going to have to deal with millions of unhappy voters, people whose plans have been canceled and can't afford plans on the exchange (not so sick they can't work, making too much money to get a subsidy, not making enough money to pay their insurance premiums and have enough left over for medical bills not covered by insurance, mortgages, childrens' educations and all the other things that soak up peoples' salaries).

    You will know that the death spiral is terminal when you hear the announcement that the fine for individuals who don't sign up for exchanges will not be enforced in 2014.

    Just pointing out that Ted Cruz stood on the Senate floor and spoke for 21 hours trying to achieve this! Is anybody going to appreciate that? I expect the numbers who do will be small, but I count myself among them. 2016 election??? Bring it!!! :)

    One poignant irony is that it would have been cheaper for everybody if the government had just identified those who didn't have insurance and purchased medical insurance for them, and paid for it with higher taxes. The tax increase would have been less for most people than their health insurance increase! (IMO)

    Schadenfreude is wonderful! Obama has cemented his place in history as the worst American President ever! Worst case for Democrats from their point of view, liberalism will have been set back for a dozen years or more. Best case for them? There's still enough stupid voters that their chance for Presidency in 2016 may not be totally pooched. But Republicans will have to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory for that to happen. Best case for conservatives? Both houses and a President who won't veto, the political equivalent of a full house. And then the agenda will be rolling back Obamacare (perhaps to be replaced by medical savings plans and tort reform) and shrinking the government.

    Just pointing out Obama's other claim to fame: The only US president who doubled the national debt during his watch, and no other president even remotely close to that! Worst US President ever!!!

    That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it. America is a mess but I'm beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel, and I'm pretty sure it's daylight!
  2. Sir Joseph

    Sir Joseph Registered User

    How can he suspend enforcement? It's the law. He's not a dictator who can decide what to enforce and what not to enforce.
  3. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    Sorry, Joseph, but he can. As President he is the chief of the Executive branch and as President he has the power to decide how the Executive branch will carry out laws enacted by the Congress. This is a part of the clever Constitutional founders idea of balance of powers. Congress can enact laws but cannot enforce them, and may be overruled by the Judicial. Executive can and should enforce laws enacted by Congress, but has the power to to refuse to execute them or may execute them partially. Congress has the power to impeach the President if they feel he is not doing an adequate job.

    As a practical matter Obama has enough support from Democrats in the Senate to prevent impeachment unless he does something bizarre like murdering his wife or having sex with his kids. Short of that the only check is for injured parties to file lawsuits in federal court which could ultimately reach SCOTUS which has the power to checkmate the President.

    Meanwhile I've been gloating over today's events (my OP was essentially me gloating yesterday) and it seems to just get worse an worse for Obama--and better and better for conservatives. Many of the insurance companies are saying it's just not financially feasible to roll back the cancellations, and state regulatory agencies (like here in California and also in Oregon) have flatly stated that they will not allow the about-face. Many of the major insurance companies have said the same, it's too little, too late, too bad, isn't going to happen.

    You see insurance companies are foreseers, it is their job to look into the future and make financial calculations based upon laws that the government sets, the laws of economics, the principle that you can predict the average behavior of humans in large numbers, and the concept of spreading risk over a large risk pool (an embodiment that you can't predict the behavior of one person but you can predict the behavior of a large group of individuals).

    I was caught by surprise by the whole Obamacare debacle, mostly because I'm on Medicare and at least for the present I'm somewhat isolated from the effects of Obamacare (other than I've known for some time that they are raiding the Medicare "lock box" -- funding -- to support Medicaid ane other programs). So as a consequence I haven't been paying that much attention between 2010 when the legislation was enacted, and when the train wreck started in October.

    But you can bet your ass that the insurance company think tanks knew this was coming. It has come to popular attention that Obama and the Democrats involved in drafting Obamacare fully knew that Obamacare would devastate the individual insurance market and would have a profound effect over employer (group) insurance (although that has been postponed until after the 2014 elections by executive order).

    My point being that all the insurance companies made assumptions about the 2014 risk pool and factored in the many healthy people who would be forced to the exchanges where they would face most of them higher premiums and many of them government subsidized premiums (read: participants more likely to sign up because the government is giving them free moneyzzzzz!).

    So the rocket scientists of the insurance companies factored in everything from fickle human nature to the phase of the moon and the constellations of the stars, and came up with their 2014 rate structure. Here in California the state run exchange worked fine from day one (October 1st). The health insurance fate of how things will be in California is already set. The rates are cast in concrete and have been approved by the state insurance commission. The insurance companies have no interest in going through a whole new (uncertain) risk pool calculation (particularly since Obama is flip-flopping on a daily basis) and as far as the insurance companies are concerned Obama's announcement changed nothing.

    So here in California the point of no turning back was October 1st (or earlier). Everybody is committed and nobody is willing to turn back the clock--except the insured who have no vote in this decision, and most importantly the insured have no alternative except to go along.

    In California--and remember that 1/5 of the cancellations (one million out of 5 million) are in CA--Obama's most recent flip-flop has no effect except to alienate more voters.

    From the point of view of a conservative (me) this Obamacare just gets better and better as far as the negative effects on Democrats and liberals, and their prospects for their future. I regret that so many innocent people have been harmed by this liberal excess of miscalculated governance.

    Remember, every Democrat in Congress voted for Obamacare, and every Republican voted against it. Obamacare is their baby from Hell. As leader, Obama will go down as the worst President in history. Let's just hope that Republicans can limit the damage and reverse some of the negative effects in 2014 an 2016.
  4. MemphisMark

    MemphisMark Old School Conservative

    Yep, as I heard on Meet The Press this morning, (the speaker was actually talking about Nancy Pelosi) "She/he's retreating faster than a French General."
  5. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    Mark, is that a real quote or is it just a gag? I can't imagine Obama speaking so bluntly in public, but of course that is exactly why he ordered the delay in shutting down non-compliant plans.

    So far I haven't heard any discussion about postponing the penalty for not signing up, but at this point it makes no sense to keep the penalty.

    Will American voters be so stupid as to not realize that all Obama has done is kick the pain down the road until after the election? Sadly, I think too many of them will, without the poke in the wallet to remind them what liberals stand for.
  6. Copzilla

    Copzilla dangerous animal Staff Member

    It's a gag. They're paraphrasing Obama's actions.
  7. Greg

    Greg Full Member

    Yeah, I figured it was pretty impossible for Obama to utter that. Never the less I'm certain the idea expressed is the absolute exact explanation of his announcement postponing cancellation of non-complying policies: his Democrat buddies pressured him into it, and many appeared to be preparing to jump ship and/or throw Obama under the bus.

    Now we are all waiting for the final announcement to fall into place: Obama will announce that he has ordered the IRS to bypass the fines for those who do not sign up for a plan, for 2014 only.

    After that IMO the Obamacare situation will have solidified with no further changes possible, because there will be nothing left to toss out that wouldn't eviscerate the program.

    I think it's a given that the Obamacare site will eventually work. When is another matter. By December 1st as promised? Depends on how you define "working." As a software developer I know that there are endless degrees of "working" when it comes to software. My prediction: the site will be working by December 1st (or heads will roll) but it won't be working well, only well enough for Obama to BS the public with his claims that they succeeded in getting the site up and running by the deadline.

    Meanwhile the other shoe is going to drop, only question is when. This is the launch of the Obama blizzard of disinformation when he starts blaming the greedy insurance companies for the inability of people to get their old plans back. He will say they should be able to do it with no problem, just send out more letters, but it's not that simple. I predict that virtually none of the cancelled policies will be reinstated.

    By November 2014 he will have the whole thing blamed on the Republicans and the insurance companies.

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