Sanctions = WAR: North Korea

[Sierra Mike]

Looks like the DPRK is truly beginning to destabilize in their world view...rather unjustly so, it appears they are committed to having the US "bow down" before them. I'm no longer convinced they're just playing around here. I think the Dear Leader has been watching too many reruns of M. Night Shyamalan's Unbreakable on Showtime.

SEOUL, Jan. 7 — A defiant North Korea said Tuesday that economic sanctions over its nuclear program would “mean a war” and that the United States should sit down for talks to resolve the standoff. North Korea’s statement came as South Korea dispatched another top diplomat to Washington to seek a peaceful solution to the escalating dispute over Pyongyang’s decision to restart its nuclear program.Read all about the DPRK's latest shenanigans at DPRK: Sanctions Mean War (http://www.msnbc.com/news/850567.asp?vts=010720031005)

SM

[mikepd]

Is any of this for internal consumption or all of it meant to send messages to the outside world? If meant for us, this could lead to dangerous miscalculation. Pres. Bush says we will not invade and means just that. Dear Leader takes not sending rice to be the equivalent to invasion (war). Very scary stuff.

[Sierra Mike]

I'm not sure. Certainly, it has the South Koreans scurrying hither and yon. I'm under the impression that nothing has changed at the DMZ, so that is perhaps indicative this is all a lot of bluster...but the fact of the matter is, the DPRK has always held the initiative. I think the US forces on the DMZ would give them one hell of a bloody nose--look for about a 3-to-1 dead DPRK troops for every American--but that's not enough to collapse their mass during an attack. Plus, it's winter; everything's frozen nice and tight, which means DPRK armor can move off the roads without a lot of problems. And the weather could conceivably restrain our combat aviation assets. The AH-64A is an all-weather attack platform, but they don't fly well in blizzards with 40-knot winds. They can, but it reduces their capability to engage; the Apache has to hold relatively steady to hit a target with a laser-guided Hellfire. I understand the weather in Korea is atrocious at this time of year.

The DPRK is making a lot of noise, regardless. I'm not sure what to make of it; to dismiss it as grandstanding is comfortable, but perhaps reckless as well. This is a society that's beginning to flicker in the wind. Who knows?

SM

[Domh]

Its some bloody irresponsible brinksmanship is what it is, and frankly Id like to see somebody strung up from the yardarms for it.

Things are touchy enough right now without that little Elvis-Mophead fruitcakes viagra suddenly kicking in.

I dont like it very much.

:mad:

[Sierra Mike]

Originally posted by Domhain
Its some bloody irresponsible brinksmanship is what it is, and frankly Id like to see somebody strung up from the yardarms for it.

Things are touchy enough right now without that little Elvis-Mophead fruitcakes viagra suddenly kicking in.

I dont like it very much.

:mad: "Little Elvis-Mophead?" :haha:

The fact is, as I read it, there's really not a lot that can be done to influence the situation in our (and here I mean "our" to include both the US and the ROK) favor. Perhaps by design, perhaps by folly, the ROK did float a possible response which smacks of appeasement (I posted on it earlier here (http://www.globalaffairs.org/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5927)) which I would presume the DPRK has seized upon. The true essence to this entire situation is the DPRK is incredibly, almost phenomenally weak; there are African nations that have more on the ball than the North Koreans do. They are faced with being shunned by their traditional "allies"--the People's Republic of China and Russia--who are, for a variety of reasons, stepping more in line with the means and ways of the West.

Adding some fuel to the fire is the US indication that war is not a real option for settling the dispute. While I would suspect this would change in a heartbeat--and rightfully so--it would take more than just heated rhetoric and desk-pounding by the DPRK. While I view this latest release from them as something worrisome, I'm fairly certain the USAF isn't loading coordinates for Pyongyang into several ICBMs just yet.

Still. I'm not clear what Pyongyang feels it can net from ratcheting up the rhetoric and essentially slapping aside every gesture it receives. All that's incumbent upon it is to stop resuscitating its nuclear program. Its proclaimations that it needs this fallow nuclear reactor to generate power have been substantially undermined, not just by the US but by the IAEA. And this time, it's the UN which is talking about sanctions; not the US. It should be clear to everyone in the DPRK's command authority that further brinkmanship is unlikely to provide them with the advantages they seek.

It's still interesting to watch, however. Though for how much longer, I'm unsure. Eventually, Washington will have to start framing responses in a more forceful manner, including talk of retribution.

SM

[Domh]

Wonder what China is thinking?

Perhaps they see an opportunity here to settle some old scores regarding that naughty little peninsula?

Sure would be a site to see the Red tide pressing in from the north, quieting the wailing of their 'little brother'.

The DPRKs weakness may have a great deal to do with its presently inflated chest. Perhaps things are worse off than we think, and this is a last play for some real power?

[Sierra Mike]

I think that for once, China's official position on a situation closely mirrors it's privately-held reality: war on the Korean Peninsula would be a disaster.

Not for the ROK, or even the DPRK; it would be disasterous for the PRC. The PRC's economy is still very much in its infancy, as it's major stimulus is from cheap labor and real estate; that means assembly lines in foreign-held factories that are being leased from the government (and herein is the de facto version of the highly-touted "joint venture"). A lot of investment in the PRC comes from South Korea. A war would definitely be like putting a sausage in a running fan. Not good.

Not to mention that US investment, which dwarfs the ROK's, would grind to a standstill. A war on the Korean peninsula would hardly be a quick thing.

SM

[Copzilla]

The whole mess could be straightened up in a hurry if not for the ROK and their hedging. I think the DPRK senses political weakness and is really trying to push an advantage. If there were solidarity, this entire thing might well be over by now.

[Sierra Mike]

Looks like Washington is at least willing to talk, though grant no new concessions...

SEOUL, Jan. 7 — In an apparent policy shift, the United States said Tuesday that it was willing to hold talks with North Korea. The offer was made in a statement issued at the end of talks involving U.S., Japanese and South Korean diplomats on the communist regime’s move to revive its nuclear weapons program.

AT THE END of two days of talks in Washington, a statement approved by all three governments endorsed dialogue with North Korea as a useful vehicle for resolving serious issues.

However, the U.S. delegation said that while it was ready to talk to the Pyongyang government “about how it will meet its obligations to the international community,” Washington was not willing to make any concessions in return to North Korea.Well, that should give the DPRK something to consider. Washington is apparently trying to figure out a way for the DPRK to "save face" without giving it a Platimun American Express card.

US Willing to Talk...But Will The DPRK Listen? (http://www.msnbc.com/news/850567.asp?vts=010720031245)

SM