Aussie Federal Election

[ditch]

It's on next saturday and there is a very good chance that John Howard will lose his seat and his party, the conservative Liberal/National Party Coalition, will lose government. Howard has been PM for 11 years and had planned on retiring after a year or so if the Libs had won the election and handed over power to Peter Costello, the current Teasurer. The opinion polls have had the opposition Labor Party as hot favourites to win the election for several months and their leader, Kevin Rudd, hot favourite as the preferred PM.

We'll be out of Iraq if Labor win but staying in Afghanistan, according to Rudd. Iraq is on the nose as is Howard's strong alliance with GWB and US foreign policy, so much so that opposing current policy is enough to win a lotta votes. Other big issues are the anti- labour union employment legislation, Work Choices, put in place by the Libs, that Labor promise to abolish, education and health. Both parties, as political parties do in election time, have pledged to spend up big in areas such as child care, education and health and by offering tax reductions. Nothing new there.

But the biggest surprise of all is the huge margin Rudd and his party have had over Howard and the Libs. If the standing PM were to lose his seat, it would be only the second time since Federation in 1900. But it could well happen.

A bit of background stuff from the Herald. (http://www.smh.com.au/news/NATIONAL/Voters-focusing-on-economics-Costello/2007/11/15/1194766833259.html)

And a bit more pre election BS. (http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/lastditch-pork-barrel/2007/11/16/1194766968042.html)

Kevin Rudd. (http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/20-things-you-need-to-know-about-kevin-rudd/2006/12/02/1164777847544.html) PM next Saturday?

[mikeky]

Here we tend to think when candidates talk more spending they mean more taxes. How important is the talk of tax reduction there to swaying voters?

[ditch]

The current govt. have managed the economy very well. Assisted by a strong global econmomy and the mining boom from which BHP Billiton, Australia's larget company, is raking in billions, Australia is out of debt with large budget surpluses fro several years. It is these surpluses that are allowing big spending promises to be made. It impresses a lot of those who are struggling with mortgage payments and the rising interest rate. We'd be better off with more money being directed at the health, education and public transport sectors but that doesn't appeal as does more money in the weekly pay packet.

[ditch]

Well Australia has a new government and Kevin Rudd is our new PM. It's line ball as to whether John Howard will hold on to his seat that he has held for 24 years. It was a landslide victory to the Labor Party.

[Coot]

If Rudd signs the Kyoto protocol, compliance could cost you folks your budget surpluses and a heck of a lot more.

[joseftu]

Kyoto protocol will be signed, and Australians will come out of Iraq. Looks like a big win for the Australian people, and the people of the planet, all around. Congratulations!

[ditch]

If Rudd signs the Kyoto protocol, compliance could cost you folks your budget surpluses and a heck of a lot more.

The coal industry here has played a big part in making the economy as strong as it is. It's not going to be easy juggling the requirements of Kyoto and maintaining the mining sector as a major contributor to exports. We'll find out how much of the pre-election talk turns into actual govt policy pretty soon.

[ethics]

Kyoto protocol will be signed, and Australians will come out of Iraq. Looks like a big win for the Australian people, and the people of the planet, all around. Congratulations!

Really? You want to tell the Iraqis and Americans?

[tke711]

Don't worry about it. The Kyoto protocol is a feel good measure that makes the country signing it feel good, even if they never actually followed it or live up to what they signed (which is the norm (http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/28/news/international/pluggedin_murphy.fortune/)). Why should Australia be any different? After all, there is no real consequence for not living up to the protocol.

Yet, the USA is the big, bad boy for actually being honest about it up front by not signing something they know they won't live up to.

[ditch]

Kyoto protocol will be signed, and Australians will come out of Iraq. Looks like a big win for the Australian people, and the people of the planet, all around. Congratulations!

Our commitment in Iraq is small so the move to withdraw is more a withdrawl of support for the current US policy. We won't really be missed in terms of numbers on the ground I guess, but we will be staying in Afghanistan however.

Environmental issues played a significant part in the election. Howard and the Libs shot themselves in the foot on this one. Howard is staunchly conservative and as good as scoffed at the environment as an election issue until recently. This attitude angered many here and he would have done well to have read the electorate more closely on this issue. His policy on the environment, or lack of it, played right into the hands of the Labor Party.

An indication of the prominence of the environment in the election is reflected by the fact that the Greens look like holding the balance of power in the Senate. (An indication of the prominence of the environment in the election is reflected by the fact that the Greens look like holding the balance of power in the Senate.)

[joseftu]

Really? You want to tell the Iraqis and Americans?
They already know. The majority of Iraqis and of Americans want all the foreign troops out of Iraq, and while I don't know about how Iraqis feel about global warming, the majority of Americans favor the US signing the Kyoto protocol.

I have been following this election campaign, peripherally, ditch, and I think the importance of environmental issues, and the resounding success with Australian voters of attention to those issues is a very good sign for Australia, specifically--and I think it's emblematic of a growing broader global consciousness. Even Bush, in recent years, has been forced to pay closer attention to these issues.

[ethics]

The Sheep that is an average American, absolutely. I've written many posts about how the points are abused, misused, and downright corrupted in the countries that did sign the protocol. I doubt any country that signed is happy about it. And what galls them even more is that America is not sharing their misery.

To Ditch: Dude, what's going to happen is that your country will dish out aLOT of money in to this and the payback is going to be... well, I doubt it will be even symbolic because I don't consider Aussies stupid, just overly emotionally politically to a fault. Of course, what will also happen is that this issue--by this I mean politically -- will be swept under the rug and people will not try talking about. Politicians who pushed it will be quiet, Aussies will be quiet for they voted for this.

End result: Status Quo. The only way to get people to do something is not sign some glittery bullshit protocols but actually take aim at what creates pollution, greenhouse effects, and what can one do about it. Here in America the #1 source is not factories but everyday driving and heating their houses. Air conditioning during the summer.

Want that changed?

Good luck! No one will sacrifice their driving, their warmth, or their cool in the summer, so they will vote for some asshole who will promise to sign some highly visible paper in order for YOU, the regular Aussie/American will not have to do anything other than agree to pay more taxes. But hey, that's part of life, huh? Who gives a shit how much we already pay as long as we lump that with "taxes".

Yep, pat yourselves on the back there, brother, instead of creating incentives to find and research alternative fuels, you will be just part of that great Al Gore train.

[ditch]

John Howard has lost his seat. The second time in our electoral history that the sitting PM has been given the boot. The other one was Prime Minister Bruce in 1929 who grew unpopular with the electorate because of his policy of "taking away the rights of workers". I'lll have to research the specifics of that. But Howard lost the election, and his seat, for a number of reasons, one of which was the "Workchoice Agreements" legislation. Amongst other things this did away with the unfair dismissal laws being applied to businesses with under 100 employees and the signing of individual workplace agreements. There were some examples of the mistreatment of individual workers because of this legislation and that did the Libs no good at all in the election. The Labor Party, that has it's roots in the trade union movement, promise to abolish this legislation.

Yes, Kyoto. It is certainly going to be a tough one to adhere to. Of course Rudd promised to do what Howard wouldn't, and sign up. We are in favour of strong action on the environment down here. But as was pointed out, we will have to make some sacrifices at the expense of the mining sector that has been a large part of our economic success. The promises before the election are so easy to make. The action afterwards is a different matter.

I agree Joe, there is a growing global consciousness on environmental action and we are influenced by that but are followers rather than leaders on this issue. But you may be right Leon, Rudd perhaps will do insufficient re adhering to Kyoto and show himself up as just another lying politician. We have no track record of his to refer to to guess as to how true to his word he'll be.

[ditch]

To Ditch: Dude, what's going to happen is that your country will dish out aLOT of money in to this and the payback is going to be... well, I doubt it will be even symbolic because I don't consider Aussies stupid, just overly emotionally politically to a fault. Of course, what will also happen is that this issue--by this I mean politically -- will be swept under the rug and people will not try talking about. Politicians who pushed it will be quiet, Aussies will be quiet for they voted for this.

End result: Status Quo. The only way to get people to do something is not sign some glittery bullshit protocols but actually take aim at what creates pollution, greenhouse effects, and what can one do about it. Here in America the #1 source is not factories but everyday driving and heating their houses. Air conditioning during the summer.

Want that changed?

Good luck! No one will sacrifice their driving, their warmth, or their cool in the summer, so they will vote for some asshole who will promise to sign some highly visible paper in order for YOU, the regular Aussie/American will not have to do anything other than agree to pay more taxes. But hey, that's part of life, huh? Who gives a shit how much we already pay as long as we lump that with "taxes".

Yep, pat yourselves on the back there, brother, instead of creating incentives to find and research alternative fuels, you will be just part of that great Al Gore train.

Well Al Gore came down here and that's no big deal. It certainly wasn't to me. He got a lot of publicity because of who he was, or is, or wants to be, I'm not sure. But he left, not sure when.
It's guys like him that give the environmental movement a bad image IMO. I'd rather someone with a lower profile push the message. This isn't an issue where celebrities do any good. What is?

So we are over emotional sometimes, I agree, but I'm not sure what you had in mind there exactly. I'd be interested to know. It's worth knowing how others see us. :)

[Kangaroo]

the majority of Americans favor the US signing the Kyoto protocol.


Well, thank God the majority does not rule in the United States.

[Morg]

And praise Allah, we in the USA don't get all the government we pay for. :beat: