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ethics
09-26-2005, 03:09 PM
The thought has occurred to just about everybody who owns a home in a hot housing market: maybe it's time to cash out. The hard part is figuring out how to do so. Only a few families can actually pick up their life in, say, California and move it to Nebraska. The other option - renting - has long been derided as the equivalent of throwing money away.


But renting might deserve another look right now. After five years in which rents have barely budged while house prices in New York, Washington, Los Angeles and elsewhere have doubled, renting has become a surprisingly smart option for many people who never would have considered it before.

Owning a home often ties up hundreds of thousands of dollars that might be invested more safely and more lucratively elsewhere over the next decade. And while real estate brokers may hate to acknowledge it, home ownership involves its own versions of throwing money away, like property taxes and the costs of borrowing.


Add it all up - which The New York Times did, in an analysis of the major costs and benefits of owning and renting, including tax breaks - and owning a home today is more expensive than renting in much of the Northeast, Florida (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/classifieds/realestate/locations/florida/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) and California. Only if prices rise well above their already lofty levels will home ownership turn out to be the good deal that it is widely assumed to be.


Of course, this analysis (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/25/realestate/25cov.html?incamp=article_popular) is about NOW and not the current home owners.

Biker
09-26-2005, 04:23 PM
Renting definitely makes more sense for me, especially as I consider myself "mobile" for now. Until I finally decide to settle down in one place for a number of years, it makes absolutely no sense for me to buy right now.

cdw
09-27-2005, 08:25 PM
I don't understand what that disclaimer means...this is about NOW and not current home owners. Oh, you mean if some one were to purchase today, vs. renting?
Do they consider the tax write offs that you get? Considering how housing pricing is increasing at a higher rate than holding it for 5 years.... ? I really think it depends on the individual areas, you can't go by the 'state'. What are you supposed to put your money in that will get you that rate of return?

ethics
09-27-2005, 08:30 PM
I don't understand what that disclaimer means...this is about NOW and not current home owners. Oh, you mean if some one were to purchase today, vs. renting?

Yes.

Do they consider the tax write offs that you get? Considering how housing pricing is increasing at a higher rate than holding it for 5 years.... ? I really think it depends on the individual areas, you can't go by the 'state'. What are you supposed to put your money in that will get you that rate of return?

This graphic shows some answers, I think.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/09/23/realestate/25cov1.jpg

tke711
09-27-2005, 08:47 PM
That analysis is OK if you plan on moving or changing residence in a relatively short period of time. I only say OK, because the 19% and 13% growth they state as required over a 5 year period is still actually possible in today's market.

Over the long-term, I don't see that analysis panning out as favorably for renters.

Biker
09-28-2005, 11:38 AM
A little story.. I bought my first home in 1984, a few months before the oil market went *kaboom*. Lost half the appraised value of my home in under 12 months. Took me 9 years to sell it when I finally put it on the market and was able to finally sell it for what was still owed on it. I suspect many are going to be in the same boat this time around as well.

ethics
09-28-2005, 11:58 AM
Very good point raised by all but good response by Tom.

We all agree that the market is too high to buy--overvalued, do we not?

If so, then it's feasible that the market will crash or subside dramatically. So yes, Gregg, long term, if the prices keep going up it's better to buy LONG term, but if the market subsides it's MUCH better to rent and buy on the low point of the housing market.

Swamp Fox
09-28-2005, 12:00 PM
Like many unmarried Asians, I'm still living at home, so I'm definitely not going to buy. But, if I was to settle down, and, if I was to decide where I want to live, then I would buy.

tke711
09-28-2005, 12:08 PM
If so, then it's feasible that the market will crash or subside dramatically. So yes, Gregg, long term, if the prices keep going up it's better to buy LONG term, but if the market subsides it's MUCH better to rent and buy on the low point of the housing market.
Feasible, yes, but not certain. Many predicted it would have happened by now, but it hasn't, and there is no guarantee that it will happen at all.

Trying to time the housing market, buy low and sell high, is even more difficult to do then it is with stocks. And we all know how well that goes for the majority of people who try to play that game.

Over the long-term, housing values in this country have always increased. IMHO, if you plan on staying somewhere for 15-20 years, you have a pretty good odds that owning is a better option.

ethics
09-28-2005, 12:11 PM
Feasible, yes, but not certain. Many predicted it would have happened by now, but it hasn't, and there is no guarantee that it will happen at all.

Of course not, but the science of economics is soft science based on trends, psychology, and events. :)

Trying to time the housing market, buy low and sell high, is even more difficult to do then it is with stocks. And we all know how well that goes for the majority of people who try to play that game.


Yeppers.

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