Challenger to Putin Is Missing

[ethics]

One of Vladimir V. Putin's challengers in next month's presidential election is missing, and the police and security services announced today that they had begun a search for him.

Ivan P. Rybkin, a former Parliament speaker and national security adviser under Boris N. Yeltsin, has not been seen or heard from since Thursday evening, raising fears among his family and campaign aides that something dire had happened to him.
I am shocked... No really (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/08/international/europe/08CND-RUSS.html?hp). ;)

[Robert Harris]

Think he will turb up alive or not?

[ethics]

Maybe in an airplane turbine.

[ethics]

Wow, guess I was wrong...

Moscow (dpa) - Missing Russian presidential candidate Ivan Rybkin
has been holding consultations in Kiev and is unharmed, aides
confirmed Tuesday after days of speculation that the Kremlin critic
may have been murdered.
``Ivan Rybkin has been found. He did indeed spend four days in
Kiev,'' the politician's head of staff Ksenia Ponomaryova told the
Interfax news agency, hours after she denied press reports that he was
holding talks with opposition figures in Ukraine. dpa na sc

[Robert Harris]

Rybkin, the missing candidate, has turned up in Ukraine. Hell of a place to campaign for president of Russia, I think.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian presidential candidate Ivan Rybkin, whose mystery disappearance triggered speculation he might have been kidnapped by rivals, turned up in

Ukraine Tuesday where he said he had been taking a break.

Rybkin, a fierce critic of President Vladimir Putin whom he will challenge in next month's election, told Russian media he was surprised at the fuss caused by his failure to contact family and aides.

"I didn't disappear anywhere. I bought a newspaper today and was stunned,'' Ekho Moskvy radio quoted him as saying.


What the hell is going on here. Did he run off for a private session with some sweetie? Or something more sinister...

Big mystery to me.

[David McDuff]

Rybkin, the missing candidate, has turned up in Ukraine. Hell of a place to campaign for president of Russia, I think.



What the hell is going on here. Did he run off for a private session with some sweetie? Or something more sinister...

Big mystery to me.


Looks like he just got an offer he couldn't refuse. The usual thing.


'Presidential candidate Ivan Rybkin said he
may pull out of the presidential race. "I am very disappointed that my
relatives have handled the situation in such a way," Rybkin said upon
arriving from Kyiv to Moscow on Tuesday,' says one news report.

DM

[ethics]

From Kyiv no less!

[David McDuff]

From Kyiv no less!

Kyiv, where he'd gone for a "vacation" - not quite sure about the significance of it...

[Allene]

Kyiv, where he'd gone for a "vacation" - not quite sure about the significance of it...

I didn't know they'd found him until I logged on last night. Didn't his wife say she had no idea where he was and that he'd left his dishes and his SHIRT in the kitchen sink? Odd place to leave a shirt! Is that a Russian custom?

Allene

[ethics]

Depends how he does the laundry. Most of the Russians to this day hand-wash their clothes. Then again, Rybkin is not exactly an average Russian so my curiousity is piqued.

[ethics]

Here's a brief interview with Rybkin:

Anchor: What is this?
Rybkin: Simply a statement. Why, because ...
Anchor: All has been happening -- what? Ivan Petrovich?
Rybkin: What has happened to me.
Anchor: And what has happened to you?
Rybkin: Well, the whole country has been told that they were
looking for me, but could not find me. What kind of game is this? I
really felt...
Anchor: A threat?
Rybkin: A threat to my personal safety and even life.
Anchor: How long do you think you need to decide whether to
run for president or not?
Rybkin: I will have to see my colleagues. They have put in a
lot of work, and many of them a lot of money into the collection of
signatures, into that stage of the campaign. I am not an
irresponsible man, I will discuss it all with them by all means. And
their opinion will be very, very important to me.
Anchor: Do you think that criminal case of allegedly false
signatures collected in your support poses any threat to you?
Rybkin: Absolutely none. I can repeat, none. I have been told
today that Mr. Fedoruk is to be released from custody. He was framed
up. Just think, we have three groups in the headquarters. The first
one, at the entrance, does the preliminary check, then the second
one, and the third, which is especially painstaking. The man at the
entrance turns down suspect signatures. They have turned down a
million and a half as not complying with the requirements of the
Central Election Commission. He is charged with letting through
false signatures.
Anchor: With failing to spot them, not with fabricating them.
Rybkin: Then, all those people in the process chain need to be
arrested. That is why I tell them, thank you for your support, thank
you for collecting the signatures and for overcoming the opposition
of the Central Election Commission. I can also thank them for the
fact that at some point, I think ,the public, including the
journalists, looked up and realized that something was wrong, not
quite right. Perhaps, it was because you spoke up that we are
speaking with you now.
Anchor: We have not taken all the questions. Or rather, we --
I -- have not got answers to all the questions. But in any case, the
most important thing is, I think, that Ivan Rybkin is again in
Moscow, among his colleagues and loved ones. Perhaps, this is the
main result, just what many people have waited and striven for.

[Robert Harris]

Depends how he does the laundry. Most of the Russians to this day hand-wash their clothes. Then again, Rybkin is not exactly an average Russian so my curiousity is piqued.

I lived "Russian" at my mother-in-law's apartment for about 6 months. I did all of my laundry in a sink, by hand. My wife did her's the same way, as did my mother-in-law. Not once did one of us do our laundry and dishes at the same time.

Something strange about that... :)

[Allene]

I lived "Russian" at my mother-in-law's apartment for about 6 months. I did all of my laundry in a sink, by hand. My wife did her's the same way, as did my mother-in-law. Not once did one of us do our laundry and dishes at the same time.

Something strange about that... :)

Bob,

Guess he was in a big hurry to leave for Ukraine! I don't know why I thought that Russian city dwellers had washing machines. When I was over there all I saw were hotels and schools.

Allene

[Robert Harris]

Washing machines still are pretty rare in Russian apartments. I had a combined washer-dryer in my own apartment -- but the apartment had been "Westernized" -- rewired to handle higher-than-usual- for- Russia electrical loads, etc. Typical Russian apartment had no washing machines, nor would electrical systems be capable of handling a dryer. I am not even sure they were available to purchase in USSR days. The ones I saw later were all imported -- mine was Italian.

They also had no laundromats. While I was there a Westerner opened the first ever. When he was getting permits for the necessary plumbing and electrical work an official was puzzled over why he was bothering, and said "But Russian women like to do hand laundry in the sink."

Oh, yeah...

[Allene]

Bob,

Interesting! I remember being told by my Russian friend that they had car washes. Maybe that's where all the electricity was going. Most of the cars I saw looked dirty. If you asked a Russian woman how she liked doing hand laundry, I bet she'd have a different story to tell altogether!

Allene

[ethics]

I remember when my wife first came over. One day, I got home to find wet clothes hung all over the place. I was like, "Damn, I knew I forgot to explain something to her."

[Allene]

I remember when my wife first came over. One day, I got home to find wet clothes hung all over the place. I was like, "Damn, I knew I forgot to explain something to her."

LOL! That reminds me of when we lived in Salt Lake City and a Russian came to visit us (not the friend you took the package for). I carefully explained the washer and dryer to him. Then I went out on an errand, and when I was driving home I could see his bedroom window was open, with the screen removed, and his socks blowing in the wind on a hanger! He was rather annoyed when I marched in and threw his socks in the dryer.

Allene

[ethics]

LOL! Yah but the difference is that when once a Russian (woman) discovers those machines, it's like, "how the hell did I manage to hand wash all of this before?" ;)

[David McDuff]

Depends how he does the laundry. Most of the Russians to this day hand-wash their clothes. Then again, Rybkin is not exactly an average Russian so my curiousity is piqued.


Maybe the Rybkin case is just one of airing the dirty washing in public, then.

Though after the killings of Yushenkov and Golovliev, you do have to wonder.

Seems he was HIDING in Ukraine.

[David McDuff]

Here's a brief interview with Rybkin:




See also:

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/2/60584395-0739-4302-A8AD-02F609217C48.html

[Robert Harris]

My wife's immediate reaction was that KGB was responsible, and that he is lucky to be alive. I tend to agree -- with as little inside information as she has. :)

[Allene]

Maybe the Rybkin case is just one of airing the dirty washing in public, then.

Though after the killings of Yushenkov and Golovliev, you do have to wonder.

Seems he was HIDING in Ukraine.

So the dirty shirt in the sink with the dishes becomes loaded with symbolism. :cool:

I thought KGB the first time I heard about him too.

The interview David posted seems to be coming from a man who has been threatened into silence. We probably won't hear any more anti-Putin statements from him.

Allene

[David McDuff]

So the dirty shirt in the sink with the dishes becomes loaded with symbolism. :cool:

I thought KGB the first time I heard about him too.

The interview David posted seems to be coming from a man who has been threatened into silence. We probably won't hear any more anti-Putin statements from him.

Allene


The FT even wants to involve the 19th century author Gogol:

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1075982435933&p=1012571727166


Sometimes one gets the feeling that the political "opposition" in Russia is not all that it seems. The scenario of Rybkin working in tandem with the FSB - either voluntarily or involuntarily - seems not totally absurd:

'Asked to comment on his behaviour, Mrs Rybkin said: "I feel sorry for Russia if people like this want to govern it'

[Allene]

Ah, the plot thickens, and the shirt has metamorphosed into a jacket. I'm developing an obsession with that shirt (in case nobody has noticed).

Allene

[Robert Harris]

With a wife like that who needs enemies?

The political opposition in Russia seems to be fading away.

[David McDuff]

Ah, the plot thickens, and the shirt has metamorphosed into a jacket. I'm developing an obsession with that shirt (in case nobody has noticed).

Allene

Allene,

To develop into a really Gogolian obsession, it needs to be an OVERCOAT.

[Allene]

Allene,

To develop into a really Gogolian obsession, it needs to be an OVERCOAT.
:) That's right, and I believe I read that work some time ago.

[Robert Harris]

Here is latest I found:

CANDIDATE RYBKIN RECONSIDERS BID. Presidential candidate and former State Duma Speaker Ivan Rybkin told Ekho Moskvy on 11 February that he intends to take a week off to decide whether to continue his bid for the presidency. The election, in which President Putin is widely expected to win a second term, will be held on 14 March. Asked about his recent mysterious five-day trip to Kyiv (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 and 11 February 2004), Rybkin said that he left Moscow suddenly and without warning his family and associates in order to avoid being followed. However, at the same time, he insisted that the special services were aware of his whereabouts at all times, since he was checked by Ukrainian border guards and customs officials. Writing in "Kommersant-Daily" on 12 February, political commentator Andrei Kolesnikov speculates that, based on the disjointed and odd interview Rybkin gave to Ekho Moskvy, perhaps Rybkin is suffering from some kind of psychological illness. In an interview with RFE/RL on 11 February, Democratic Union leader and Duma Deputy Valeria Novodvorskaya had a different theory about what had happened to Rybkin during the five days he was missing. "To change the position of someone is easy enough if they have no dissident past, no desire to die for their beliefs," she said. She noted that Rybkin does not have a reputation as a libertine, and judging from his gaunt countenance and illogical speech at the airport, it did not appear that he had just gotten back from a fun trip. "They scared the living daylights out of him," she concluded. JAC

From: RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 8, No. 28, Part I, 12 February 2004


I think Deputy Novodvorskaya has it right.

[David McDuff]

Here is latest I found:



I think Deputy Novodvorskaya has it right.


And now Rybkin is in London...



Chechenpress

Ivan Rybkin leaves for London and Brussels


Russian presidential candidate Ivan Rybkin leaves for a trip
abroad along the route London - Brussels today. According to Rybkin, he
will meet with British and Belgian parliamentarians and with the
businessman Boris Berezovsky.


http://chechenpress.com/news/2004/02/12/09.shtml


Also:

Rybkin pledges to keep running for presidency

MOSCOW. Feb 12 (Interfax) - Russian presidential candidate Ivan Rybkin,
who disappeared mysteriously in Moscow a week ago and resurfaced in Kyiv
early this week, said he has made up his mind to continue running for
the presidency.
"After the circumstances that forced me to spend several days in Kyiv
without telling anyone, I pondered for a while whether it made any sense
for me to keep participating in the presidential race. But now I have
made a firm decision to continue participating," Rybkin told Interfax by
telephone from London.


He says he was "kidnapped", and will run his election campaign from abroad:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3485929.stm

[Allene]

If I were Rybkin, I'd go into exile. By the time he finishes talking, he'll have dug his grave. Wonder if his wife came along, or did he leave his shirt in the sink for her again?

[David McDuff]

If I were Rybkin, I'd go into exile.


Looks like he's already there.

Come to think of it, isn't there a rather long tradition of Russian politicians using London as a hiding place?

[Robert Harris]

He is in London and plans to stay there. He obvioiusly is scared and admits he was kidnapped and drugged. So he will run for presifdent -- but from England.

LONDON, England (CNN) -- A Russian presidential candidate who disappeared for five days says he was kidnapped and drugged by his captors who lured him to the Ukranian capital Kiev.

Ivan Rybkin, 57, said in a statement released Friday in London that he would not return to Moscow until after the March 14 election.

"I will remain abroad in order to be able to tell the truth about Russia," he said.

"My decision to stay out of Russia and my public stand on the situation within my country is the only realistic guarantee of the security of my family.... Now even the most inconspicuous accident occurring to my family would immediately be seen as the regime taking revenge on me."


My wife, whose office gets Russian V news, saw him yesterday and said she was sure he had been drugged.

In his statement, Rybkin -- the former speaker of Parliament and national security adviser to former President Boris Yeltsin -- said he had been lured under false pretences to Kiev, where he was kidnapped, drugged and kept unconscious for four days.

I dont know who did it but I know who benefited from this," he said. "After what happened in Kiev, I'm convinced that this election is a game without rules and it can end for me without ever beginning. That is why I will continue my campaign from abroad and then we shall see."


More: http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/02/13/russia.rybkin/

Wonder how he was lured, though.

I guess we can all stop making believe that Democracy has a strong foothold in Russia. Seems to be slipping away rapidly, with the thugs fully in control.

Bah...

[David McDuff]

I'm simply intrigued by the way in which Russian politicians nowdays seem to regard Western Europe, and London in particular, as a base for their campaigns and operations, and also as a reasonable place in which to conduct their business in general. Berezovsky and Rybkin are not the only ones. I mean, our politicians here in the UK don't go to Moscow at election time... But this does have roots in the past, of course, for Lenin, Stalin and Trotsky were all keen visitors to London. Why, the literary translator Constance Garnett even acted as Lenin's interpreter at Bolshevik conferences in London (in the days before he was Lenin). Now there's a thought. :)

[ethics]

Stratfor had an interesting angle. I am in the midst of obtaining copyrights to re-post here, hopefully tonight. :)

[David McDuff]

Stratfor had an interesting angle. I am in the midst of obtaining copyrights to re-post here, hopefully tonight. :)

Yes, I read their analysis. I think there definitely is a link between what's happening right now vis-a-vis Rybkin, etc. and the current growing rift between Russia and the EU. This was particularly noticeable recently in the spat over Zakayev's visit to Germany. "Der
Stern" magazine had an article claiming that the information about the "terrorists" was received by the German BKA (Federal Criminal Police) from Russian security services. And then some Duma members wanted to ask Fischer if the allegations coming from their own state-owned crime syndicate were correct. Only Putin or Patrushev could have known that. There's some kind of trouble brewing for Europe here, I suspect, the nature of which will become clearer in the months immediately after Putin's "landslide victory" in the elections. IMO it's the kind of game that the Nazis played in Europe in the years before 1939.

[ethics]

Yes, I read their analysis.
LOL! I should have known!

I loved your (and everyone's in the thread) analysis and while the western media already dismissed the whole affair, I agree that this is huge and speaks volumes of not only the current political situation in Russia but the future as well.

[Allene]

David, I was going to mention Lenin--the only one I could remember as having been in London.

If Rybkin moves into your neighborhood, be sure to ask him about that shirt! ;)

Leon, I'll watch for that link.

[ethics]

Posted with copyright permissions (sorry folks, have to have the ads in there as well):


Russia: The Disappearing (and Reappearing) Candidate

Summary

Ivan Rybkin -- a Russian presidential candidate who disappeared
Feb. 5 -- surfaced in Kiev on Feb. 10, expressing surprise that
anyone was concerned about his absence. Rybkin's cavalier
attitude grants outsiders an idea of how slim the pickings will
be in the March 14 presidential elections, and his indifference
portends the shape of Russian internal -- and international --
politics in the years to come.

Analysis

Ivan Rybkin, a Russian presidential candidate who disappeared
Feb. 5, resurfaced in Kiev on Feb. 10. In an interview with
Interfax, he expressed bewilderment that his disappearance had
caused such a fuss. Rybkin's cavalier attitude gives outsiders an
idea of how thin the pickings will be in the March 14
presidential elections and foretells the path Russian internal --
and international -- politics will follow in the years to come.

Soon after Rybkin's disappearance, which was initially reported
by his wife and his campaign manager, a nationwide hunt began.
The leading conspiracy theory was that the government of Russian
President Vladimir Putin had decided to "disappear" the critical
Rybkin, who has ties to Boris Berezovsky, the Kremlin's public
enemy oligarch No. 1.

Apparently nothing quite so dramatic was in the works. Rybkin
said he simply decided to take a few days off to visit friends in
Ukraine. "I am entitled to two or three days of private life.
Last week I decided to take a break from the intrigue that there
was about me. I left fruit and money for my wife, who is looking
after our grandchildren at the moment, but did not tell her
anything. I changed my jacket, got on a train and went to Kiev."

Just in case some of our readers were wondering, this is as weird
as it sounds -- even for Russia.

Normally, Stratfor would not deign to comment on the
eccentricities of Russia's fringe electoral candidates. But in
the upcoming elections, there is no one else to talk about.

The December 2003 Duma elections ushered in a fresh parliament in
which the party in power, United Russia, won a two-thirds
majority. Most international observers labeled the elections as
"free, but not fair," indicating that while the actual balloting
process was handled appropriately, the government intervened
heavily during the campaign to maximize United Russia's
performance. As a result, the communists -- normally the largest
party in the Duma -- lost more than half of their deputies, and
two pro-Western parties that have been hallmarks in Russian
politics since 1992 simply faded away.

None of the parties -- not even the nationalist ones that have
pledged to cooperate with the Kremlin -- have fielded their top
personalities as presidential candidates. The reason is simple:
It would be pointless.

Consequently, from among the existing "field" of candidates,
Putin is currently polling some 80 percent support among
potential voters. The "undecided" category is outpolling all the
other candidates combined.

After he wins in March, Putin will don his threadbare cloak of
democracy, and the Kremlin will have little problem pushing
through policy with minimal public competition. This being
Russia, there will be murky, behind-the-scenes wrangling over the
details, but the Duma no longer will be part of the give-and-take
of Russian politics.

The Russian people do not seem particularly put out by this state
of affairs. The past 15 years have been jarring, to say the
least, and the average Russian has seen his income drop by more
than half. The health care system has collapsed, Russia is widely
perceived as a has-been and the oligarchs have proven remarkably
successful (until recently) at running the country like their own
private profit center.

Yet the Russians have not rebelled, rioted or taken much action
at all. When the Yeltsin government began shelling the White
House (where the Duma is housed) in 1993, the international
community was outraged. Moscow slept.

We do not expect an outpouring of opposition in March. Under
Putin, salaries are mostly paid, stores usually have food on the
shelves and incomes have risen slightly. For the average Russian,
maintaining the present "stability" is far more important than
building a vibrant democracy -- and Putin is generally liked for
making the Russians feel as if the post-Soviet freefall is
finally over.

This feeling is not necessarily shared abroad. While the United
States clearly cares little about the internal politics of its
allies in the war on terrorism, the Europeans are a bit more
discerning about relations with their neighbors. This does not
mean the Europeans are going to ask for a divorce. Europe must
deal with Russia by virtue of geography if nothing else, and the
Continent imports approximately 25 percent of its primary energy
needs from the former Soviet Union -- a proportion that will only
grow in the years ahead. There will be no breaches in relations,
but neither will anyone be leaving fruit on the table.

The difference in European-Russian relations -- which were not
exactly blooming -- will be one of tone. Rather than the lovefest
that was shaping up in the aftermath of Sept. 11, when it seemed
East and West could finally put their differences aside, Europe's
approach to Russia will be more circumspect. Infrastructure
projects that the Europeans once might have happily paid for will
remain on the drawing board, and any effort to strengthen non-
energy trade will wither on the vine. The admittance of 10 new
states into the European Union will mark the beginning of a new
division, not the joining of two economic and political worlds
long split by the Cold War.

Should Russia under Putin continue, as is likely, down a path the
Europeans see as less than democratic, there is a real
possibility that Europe could find ambitious U.S. military
restructuring plans -- which will shift assets closer to the
Russian frontier -- less distasteful than they did at first
glance. In that light, Russia's lurch toward state control just
might help the United States and Europe mend the rift in NATO
exposed by the Iraq war.



(c) 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.

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[Robert Harris]

Fortunately my wife's close family, except for her mother, have excaped and are now letting their tsalents serve Germany, Canada and, of course, the US. But I want to cry for my friends still in Russia.

[Allene]

Fortunately my wife's close family, except for her mother, have excaped and are now letting their tsalents serve Germany, Canada and, of course, the US. But I want to cry for my friends still in Russia.

Bob,

Why is your mother-in-law still there? Because she wants to stay? When I think of the excitement these people felt in the early 90s and compare it with what is happening now, I feel sad too. They quoted a Russian woman in Time re the subway bombing. She said she was scared but had no control over her life. It was all up to the people at the top. Are they turning over what little freedom they gained without a whimper?

Leon, thanks for posting the link.

[David McDuff]

Wonder how he was lured, though.
...


Apparently he was told he could meet Maskhadov in Kyiv. (Reuters)

[Robert Harris]

Latest I saw somewhere is that while drugged he made a :"compromising" video. No details given but he says it was made by perferts. Suppose they got him on film with a goat or somethiing? Or maybe Paris Hilton. :)

It just gets more interesting...